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Miller’s talk is a bracing experience – and the whole conference is am eye-opener. He also asked, “is someone going to put HP out of its misery?”Īnd even Apple, whose lack of innovation is starting to jar, should pull its socks up: “They need another game-changer.” His roll-call of technologies that might not survive is a big one, including Windows 8 and BlackBerry. “This will make princes of some companies and paupers of others.” The only sector where he let himself be positive was mobile: “Mobile is breaking the mould: it’s the biggest disruptive force we have ever seen in the technology sector.” He said there could be 11 billion Internet connected smartphones by 2020.Įven that is not all good news. “We are in our sixth consecutive year of market decline – and the IT market will continue to grow more slowly than gross domestic product (GDP) till the end of the decade, and probably indefinitely,” he predicted. It might make more money if it nursed the on-premises software through its declining years, and eventually left the market to the newcomers.Īlongside his grim forecast for SaaS, Miller had some things to say about Apple, BlackBerry, and laptops, and he also pointed out, somewhat grimly, that the tech sector, which is held by some to be the saviour of the UK, is actually growing slower than the overall economy. Maybe if a company is lucky enough to have an on-premises business, like a SAP or an Oracle, it should think twice before it joins the crowd of barbarians ripping it apart. SaaS is a market where margins are tiny and early entrants are having a rough time of it, but the model seems to be undoubtedly taking business away from on-premises offerings. You have to ask what else he thinks software companies should be doing, of course. And he doesn’t see that situation improving.
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The iconic SaaS firm, Salesforce, made a loss and – as Miller said – “waxed lyrical about their lack of profit”. But why should this cost less? “Flexibility should come at a premium, not a discount,” he said. It allows users to buy as much or as little software as they want. SaaS is great, because it is more flexible. And yet SaaS software is cheaper than the on-premises version. It costs more to deliver software as a service than it costs to deliver software on a disk, because users need looking after and you need a site and bandwidth. What is his problem with SaaS? “The clue is in the word ‘service’,” he told the Intellect conference. He thinks that vendors who take an existing on-premises model, and willingly risk it by pushing into SaaS, may not be doing the most sensible thing. He is talking about the higher layers of the cloud, which a meteorologist might call “cirrus” but which we refer to as software as a service (SaaS). He’s not talking about the lower layers, platform as a service (PaaS) or infrastructure as a service (IaaS). And while he is on stage, he threw out some other predictions including a suggestion that technology isn’t the saviour of the UK, and laptops are not dead.įirst off, when he slates the cloud he’s not talking about all manifestations of it. So if Miller says the cloud could evaporate this year, we had probably better pay some attention. Miller had the stage all to himself, right after Boris Johnson’s economic advisor, Gerard Lyons. The event was sponsored by Cobalt Corporate Finance, and chaired by the BBC’s political editor Nick Robinson.
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He had one of the keynote slots at the annual conference of Intellect, the organisation which represents Britain’s technology industry. The man is obviously trying to wind people up, but he made a strong case, and he made it on an impressive platform. According to Anthony Miller of TechMarketView, this year could spell doom for – the cloud. This year, 2013, will be make or break for many things, but perhaps you haven’t heard that one of the things that could crash and burn this year is the business model which most people seem to believe is the best hope for the future.